QC
Quanterix Corp (QTRX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 delivered double‑digit revenue growth: $35.2M (+11% YoY) with GAAP gross margin 63.0% and non‑GAAP gross margin 57.7%; EPS was $(0.30), and net cash usage improved to $4.4M .
- Against S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly beat ($35.2M vs $34.9M*) while EPS missed (−$0.30 vs −$0.254*); EBITDA was better than expected (−$10.0M* actual vs −$11.2M* estimate), and adjusted EBITDA was −$5.9M (non‑GAAP) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
- Management guided FY 2025 revenue to $140–$146M (2–6% growth), GAAP gross margin 59–63%, and non‑GAAP GM 53–57%; Q1 2025 revenue expected down 10–15% YoY due to U.S. academic softness and timing of larger Accelerator projects .
- Strategic catalysts: Akoya all‑stock acquisition to expand TAM and accelerate recurring revenue/cost synergy realization ($40M run‑rate by 2026); Simoa ONE launch targeted for late 2025; EMISSION acquisition to vertically integrate bead supply and enable OEM segment .
- Narrative drivers include continued Accelerator strength (22% growth in Q4), disciplined margin expansion, and initial diagnostics enablement revenue ($2.7M in Q4), offset by instrument softness and U.S. academic “paralysis” weighing on near‑term growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Seventh consecutive quarter of double‑digit revenue growth; Q4 revenue $35.2M (+11% YoY) and non‑GAAP gross margin expanded ~300 bps to 57.7% on price/mix and efficiency improvements .
- Accelerator Lab revenue rose 22% to $8.6M, driven by clinical trials and custom assay development; diagnostics partners contributed $2.7M in Q4 .
- Strategic progress: announced merger with Akoya to create integrated blood/tissue biomarker leader; clear synergy timeline to $40M run‑rate by 2026 and path to positive free cash flow in 2026; Simoa ONE target launch late 2025 .
Management quotes:
- “We delivered 11% revenue growth… despite a capital constrained environment.”
- “100% of our $40 million operating synergies will be run rate by 2026.”
- “Simoa ONE… enable up to a 10‑fold increase in sensitivity… substantial increase in plexing and specificity.”
What Went Wrong
- EPS loss widened YoY to $(0.30) vs $(0.23) and net loss increased to $(11.6)M in Q4; GAAP operating expenses increased to $36.9M with ~$2.7M M&A/restatement costs .
- Instruments remained pressured (Q4 instrument revenue $3.1M; down 7% YoY though up 29% sequentially), reflecting ongoing capital constraints across academic and pharma customers .
- FY25 guide below Street by >$12M per Q&A; company cited U.S. academic market “paralysis” and slower H1 Accelerator cadence before 2H pickup .
Financial Results
Core P&L and Margins (Q2→Q3→Q4 2024)
Notes: Q3 metrics were disclosed on a preliminary/restated basis with revenue and margins; net loss/EPS not provided in Q3 press materials .
Q4 2024 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Revenue Composition (GAAP categories)
Operating Mix Detail (management disclosure)
KPIs and Cash
Non‑GAAP and Reconciliations:
- Adjusted EBITDA (Q4): $(5.886)M; Adjusted EBITDA margin: −16.7% .
- Shipping/handling reclassification impacts gross margin and OpEx non‑GAAP metrics .
Guidance Changes
Note: CFO added color on operations cash usage and investment mix; press release includes total cash usage including EMISSION upfront/milestone payments .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Our ability to grow in a difficult environment is the result of investments… focusing on key vertical markets and recurring revenues.”
- CFO: “We placed 18 instruments in the quarter… GAAP gross margin was 63%… strong performance driven by favorable product mix, strong output and improved inventory management.”
- CEO on Akoya: “We expect to generate positive free cash flow in 2026… target $1B revenue with EBIT margins of 15% five years post close.”
- CEO on academic macro: “We think… paralysis… indirect cuts do not fund our systems… If funding is unlocked earlier that’d be upside.”
Q&A Highlights
- Guidance gap vs Street: Management acknowledged FY25 guide more than $12M below Street, citing academic budget paralysis and H1 Accelerator timing; confidence in 2H recovery .
- Diagnostics ramp: 10 hospitals/labs in validation; some in contract phase; partner enablement revenues included in guide; direct Lucent testing not included .
- Reimbursement: Focus on multi‑marker LCD/ADLT pathway in 2025; expect materially higher rate vs single marker precedent .
- Instrument outlook: Soft across academic/pharma; sequential improvement in Q4; recovery viewed as gradual .
- OUS expectations: Low double‑digit to high single‑digit growth; U.S. academic and pharma timing are primary headwinds .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2024: Revenue beat consensus ($35.162M vs $34.932M*), EPS missed (−$0.30 vs −$0.254*), EBITDA better than expected (−$10.0M* actual vs −$11.2M* estimate). Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
- FY 2024: Revenue in line ($137.421M actual vs $137.192M* estimate); Street may lower FY25 revenues following cautious H1 and academic assumptions . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Operating model resilience: Recurring revenues (~consumables + Accelerator) continue to offset instrument softness; margin discipline preserved with GAAP GM at 63% .
- Near‑term caution, 2H skew: Expect a soft Q1 (−10–15% YoY) and flat/slightly down H1 before 2H acceleration; academic budget clarity is a swing factor .
- Strategic upside: Akoya integration and EMISSION verticalization aim to expand TAM, deepen recurring revenues, and drive $40M cost synergies by 2026; path to FCF positive in 2026 .
- Diagnostics optionality: Partner‑enabled revenue ($2.7M Q4) demonstrates early traction; multi‑marker reimbursement pursuit and clinical utility could unlock medium‑term growth .
- Watch list: Academic funding signals, instrument demand recovery, Simoa ONE launch milestones, and merger closing progress; any acceleration in therapy uptake (Leqembi/Kisunla) could catalyze diagnostics demand .